The Inverse Relationship Between Quality and Goals

We always hear about how great the Premiership is. It's easy to dismiss this sometimes, because the evidence can sometimes seem pretty thin. First of all, these claims come from mindless Sky chatter; second, English players (still a majority in the Premiership) are pretty crap; third, pretty much any game involving Liverpool, Everton or Boro is guaranteed to be boring as shit. And there's the little matter of how few goals are scored in the league - fewer last year than in any of the major European leagues.

But then again, the top English teams do seem to be reaching the final stages of the Champions' League much more regularly than anyone else these days, so maybe they are doing something right.

We also hear a lot about how boring Italian football is. Some of this is a hang-over from 60s-era catenaccio (English commentators in particular seem to be under some delusion that any time an Italian squad plays fewer than three up front they are playing catenaccio), but for much of the period 1997-2003, pretty much every team's defensive philosophy could be summed up with the phrase "ten men behind the ball".

Yet, over the past few years, as money has bled out of the Italian game, scoring totals have been going up. A quick look at the first two rounds of this year's Serie A shows that 59 goals have been already been scored (with Milan-Fiorentina still to be played) - a goals per game average significantly higher than any of the other major leagues. So maybe it's not so dull after all.

Also, as the German league has fallen behind further and further behind the other leagues in terms of spending, the game has become noticeably more open and attractive - I can actually enjoy watching a game of German football these days, which certainly wasn't the case six years ago.

So, I'm thinking about all this and it occurs to me: are good leagues inherently low-scoring?

This isn't an easy conclusion to reach, by the way. I despise negative football and football played in the air (I know, I know, so why am I supporting TFC? I don't really have a good answer other than that the stadium is only a few blocks away). But then, fortunately, I came up with an alternative explanation.

It's been noted a few times by the press that the game has become much faster and more athletic over the past two decades. It's hard to imagine either Socrates or Cruyff - pack-a-day smokers the pair of them - making much of an impact these days because of the increasing pace of the game. The simple fact is that with increasing athleticism, players can cover much more of the pitch now than they used to. Space is therefore at a much greater premium than it used to be, at least in leagues with the very top players. And lack of space in football - in pretty much any sport, come to think of it - means fewer goals.

In other words, as Italian football has seen the average quality of its players fall over the past half-decade, it has seen more space open up and more goals allowed. And the reverse is true in England. Better players might make for better technical football, but it doesn't necessarily make for better spectacles

Disappointingly, I then discovered that Socrates had already essentially made this observation in an interview with Alex Bellos that was included in his book Futebol (which suggests that I hadn't so much made the observation on my own as I had drawn it from the depths of my subconscious). The iconic 80s Brazilian superstar even has a suggested remedy for the side-effects of increased athleticism: open up space by reducing the number of players on the pitch to 9-a-side.

This, of course, is unlikely to occur if for no other reason than that FIFPro would go totally stark raving bananas at the idea. But think about it: nine or ten a side would mean more room, more goals, and more room to introduce tactical variations. No other rule change could possibly have the same galvanizing effect on the game and return it to its attacking roots. Above all, it would reduce the tendency of having the athleticism of expensive and talented players cancel each other out. Reducing the number of players is an idea well worth considering.